With one leg to play, what had initially looked like a foregone conclusion, has now turned into one of the tightest contested series titles of recent times.
After the first three legs of the 2018 sevens series, it looked like the DJs had already had the series title wrapped up, with convincing wins in Nakuru, Eldoret and Machakos. The Homeboyz had been on an 18 game unbeaten run, this season, that run stretching to 22 games until they met their closest challengers Mwamba RFC in the Driftwood sevens cup semi final, then things took a turn.
Consequent wins for Nakuru in Mombasa and Mwamba in Kisumu, threw the race to the series title wide open, as we head into the final leg, the Christie sevens, the gap between the two realistic contenders is only eight points. The DJs sit on 100 points, while Mwamba are on 92 Points.
The magic number as the teams head to the RFUEA grounds, is 114, which is the maximum number of points Mwamba can attain after a cup win at the Christie sevens (Cup win = 22 points). To get to that mark, Homeboyz have to at least make the Cup semi final to finish in the top four, which is worth at least 15 Points.
Just so we are on the same page here is a snap shot of the points distribution at the series ; Cup win – 22, Runner up – 19, 3rd place – 17, 4th place – 15, 5th place (What was known as the plate) – 13, 6th place – 12, a place in the 5th place semi – 10 points, Challenge trophy (Bowl) – 8, finalist – 7, and so on and so forth, those are the important ones this far.
To the math and permutations (The if buts and maybes);
First thing is that Mwamba cannot afford a slip up, they have to finish above Homeboyz, then hope the math is in their favour, anything else would see the DJs have the final dance, here are a few scenarios ;
If Mwamba win the Christie sevens title and Homeboyz finish within the top four places, the title goes to the DJs, anything less sees the series trophy handed to Mwamba.
If Homeboyz fail to make it past the Cup quarter final, they will have to win the 5th place trophy and hope Mwamba lose at the cup final, which will see the DJs total tally stand at 113, with Mwamba at 111. If Mwamba win the cup final, they would have won the race to 114.
If Homeboyz fail to make it to the Cup competition on day 2, their maximum achievable points would be 108 points (A challenge trophy win), Mwamba would then need to finish 3rd or better (17 points or more) to snatch the title from the DJs.
If both teams, miraculously fall out of the Cup competition at whatever stage, then it will by all means be a Homeboyz title, as the 8 point gap will mean at the worst the DJs would get to 101 points and the black shirts at best would get to 100 points. If this were to happen though, a KCB cup win (they are currently on 81 points) would see the Lions sneak their way to the 2018 series title (Yeah, right!)
The possibilities, like the bounce of a rugby ball are endless and not so predictable. Looking at the pools at the Christie sevens, one thing is for sure, this will be one cracker of a sevens weekend. A fitting end to the 2018 series.
Pool A : Mwamba, Kabras, Mean Machine, Narvskaya Zastava (Russia)
Pool B: Homeboyz, Nakuru, Oilers, TUKS & Blue Bulls.
Pool C : Impala, Quins, Nothern Suburbs, Emerging UG 7s.
Pool D : KCB, Nondies, Kisii, Strathmore.
KWISHA…Nimeruka Nje!!!
