The 2024/25 Kenya Cup regular season is set for a nerve-wracking end, especially for the teams in the bottom half of the table, with the battle to avoid relegation set to go down to the last kick on March 8th. So who is going down?
Barring any shockers, the South Coast Pirates’ fate was sealed after game week nine, and their first top-flight campaign will end in relegation. A campaign the ‘maharamia’ can be proud of, especially the excitement they brought back to the game online.
As it stands the teams currently between 7th and 11th, could join the SC Pirates in next year’s Championship league.
Impala – 15 Points
Impala have their fate in their hands, with fixtures against KCB away and Nakuru at home. They’ll most probably get four points from those two fixtures, a win against Nakuru, to take their season tally to 19 which will be enough to see them survive.
Impala’s Projected season tally – 19 Points
Strathmore Leos – 12 Points
Strathmore’s road to survival is quite the uphill task, with fixtures against KU’s Blak Blad (Away) and Kenya Harlequins (Home).
I don’t see the Leos getting any points from these two fixtures, to finish on 12 points, which will then see them crossing their fingers that results elsewhere go their way.
Strathmore’s projected season tally – 12 Points
Kisumu RFC – 12 Points
Kisumu also have a slippery path to survival, they travel to the capital to face Kenya Harlequin, before wrapping their season at home to Nondies.
Like Strathmore, I don’t see Kisumu earning any points from their run-in, to close the season on 12 points, and squeaky bum time. Remember the league’s first tiebreaker is head to head.
Kisumu’s projected season tally – 12 Points
Mwamba RFC – 10 Points
It gets tricky from this point on, starting with Kulabu who travel to face fellow relegation battlers Nakuru, then host Blak Blad.
I see Mwamba losing to both Nakuru and Blad, but getting probable life-saving losing bonus points on both occasions, taking their season tally to 12 Points, making it a three-way tie!
Mwamba’s projected season tally – 12 Points
Nakuru RFC – 9 Points
The fruits of Wanyore’s late-season charge will be in their hands, as they take on Mwamba at the NAC, and travel to the capital to take on Impala.
As mentioned, Nakuru will beat Mwamba, but without a winning bonus, then lose to Impala, where I see them picking up a losing bonus to take their season tally to 14 points.
Nakuru’s projected season tally – 14 Points
So, I predict that this is how the Kenya Cup table will look on the morning of 10th March.
| TEAM | POINTS TALLY |
| 7. Impala | 19 Points |
| 8. Nakuru | 14 Points |
| 9. Strathmore Leos | 12 Points |
| 10. Mwamba | 12 Points |
| 11. Kisumu | 12 Points |
| 12. SC Pirates | 8 Points |
Reading from the current league manual on tiebreakers involving more than two teams (5,b,ii), the first criterion is points scored. As of match day 9, the team with the most points ranked in order; Strathmore (-92), Mwamba (-245), Kisumu (-292).
I don’t see any high-scoring games that could change that pecking order, if anything Kisumu’s will be the most impacted. So from my crystal ball…it will be Kisumu and SC Pirates to go down.
KWISHA… Nimeruka Nje!!
