As predicted, the 2021/22 Kenya Cup battle for survival has gone to the wire, with three match days to play, eight of the twelve sides are mathematically in the fight to keep their Kenya Cup status intact.
The log as at match day 8 reads as follows from the bottom, up ; Nondies (7 points), Impala (10), Nakuru (11), Homeboyz (11), MMUST (14), Blad (14), Quins (15) and Mwamba (15). Remember, the bottom two head to the championship. Let’s get to the exciting part, crunching the numbers, trying to predict who will be relegated.
The Red Lion anchors the league on seven points, off one win, with a point difference of -96 (yes this might be important). They face 5th place Mwamba this weekend, then face Impala and end the season against Homeboyz.
Two wins from these three should all but secure Kenya Cup status for the oldest club in the country, but if there is one game that they have to win, it has to be the one against Impala, followed by Homeboyz, hehe. While most may paint an all gloomy image of their season, their fate is firmly in their hands!
The 10-time Kenya Cup winners, are three points above Nondies, off two wins, with a -71 point difference. They face Homeboyz, Nondies and MMUST.
Almost a similar case as Nondies, but while the red lion’s run in might afford them a bit of leeway, Impala’s is not that lenient, the red shirts have to beat Homeboyz and Nondies as their chances of beating MMUST are quite slim.
The Wanyore sit one point ahead of Impala and are tied on 11 points with Homeboyz, off 2 wins and a draw. They hold the undesirable title of the leakiest defence in the league, having shipped in 256 points, they sit on a point difference of -152.
Nakuru have a tough run in, taking on MMUST, Quins then Oilers, the only redemption being they will be hosting MMUST and Oilers at the NAC. It looks like an uphill task for Nakuru with all the three sides on better form than they are, but if there is one thing you never do, is write off the Mnyore.
As mentioned, the DJs sit on 11 points, off two wins, with a point difference of -64. Their run in features Impala, Kabras and Nondies.
The DJs have a manageable run in, with two winnable games which should secure them Kenya Cup status next season, although it highly looks like that final game against Nondies will be a ‘winner take all’ affair.
The ‘Kisiagi’ sits on 14 points, off three wins, on a -45 points difference, while the teams from this point are realistically not in the relegation battle, the math says something else.
MMUST face Nakuru, Mwamba and Impala, a very manageable run in where the students can secure Kenya Cup status with a win at Nakuru, then almost turn into ‘king maker’ in that last fixture against Impala.
The seasoned relegation survivors find themselves a bit safer than they would in previous seasons, they are tied on 14 log points with their comrades, with two points separating them on the points difference column.
Blad face a tricky run in with Quins, Oilers and Leos, but like MMUST, they need one win to all but secure their top flight status, lucky for them that game will be at their fortress. If they claim a win this weekend they can rest easy, otherwise those fixtures against Oilers and Leos will be real nail bitters.
Mwamba & Quins
Mwamba and Quins are also tied on 15 points and are one win away from securing their Kenya Cup status, Mwamba take Nondies, MMUST and finish the season against Quins, with the quartered shirts squaring it off against Blad, Nakuru before that season ender.
Both will most probably be on one win out of two heading to that last clash, which would be a formality to decide who finishes where.
- Nondies will collect a total of 8 points from the three games, with close wins over Impala and Homeboyz, none with a bonus point.
- Impala will collect 5 points, from a close win against Homeboyz, the Djs collecting a losing bonus and Impala getting a losing bonus against Nondies.
- Nakuru will unfortunately not get a point from their run in.
- Homeboyz will pick 2 points from losing bonuses against Impala and Nondies.
- MMUST will pick up a perfect 15, with bonus wins in their three fixtures.
- Blad will pick 5 points, off a win against Quins and a losing bonus against Strathmore.
- Mwamba will pick 8 points, with wins against Nondies and Quins.
- Quins will pick up 7 points, off a bonus win against Nakuru and losing bonuses against Blad and Mwamba.
So who will be the unfortunate two to join drop to the tours and travels?
There you have it, Nondies will pip Impala to 9th place due to a better head to head record, the rest is basically straightforward.
As always feel free to share your predictions in the comments section, or if you are not brave enough, wait for the season to end and come back here…either way, do enjoy what promises to be an enthralling battle for survival!